Air Travel Safety

I found this website, basically its a list of all plane crashes in the US going back 15 years, its kind of insane how safe air travel is.

Looking at serious plane crashes (planes with a capacity of 10 or more with at least one fatality), there have been only 14 since the year 2000. The fatality count by incident is below:

3
44
49
20
13
21
260
92*
65*
64*
45*
82
109
19

*includes the 9/11 hijackers in fatality totals.

The total number of people killed in while on major incidents is 886. 867 if you don’t count the 9/11 hijackers.

The vast majority of them happened in four instances: a 747 from Taipei to LA in October 2000, the Concorde crash in July 2000, the bizarre crash of an American Airlines plane in New York city just months after 9/11, and the September 11 plane crashes themselves.

All of those took place in 2000 or 2001; since 2002 there have been no crashes with 100 or more fatalities in the US (including flights into our out of the US).

Since 2000, there have been about 10 billion passenger flights in the US (about 2 flights per person per year), or about 1 in 11 million chance of dying on any given flight.

If we only look at the last ten years, we get an even better picture, 116 fatalities with 7.2 billion passengers, for a one in a 62 million chance of dying on any given flight. The past five years it becomes one in a billion chance; although with only one incident it probably understates the chances somewhat.

What’s equally crazy is the change in safety numbers. In the 1990’s a US passenger had about a one in 5 million chance of dying in any given flight, which is pretty damn safe; in comparison it was about as dangerous in the 1990s to board any given flight as it was in 2007 to drive 16.5 miles. The 2000s have been about 70% safer (or if you prefer, 42% less dangerous), meaning that boarding any given flight is about as dangerous as driving 9.5 miles (in 2007 miles). The past ten years? Well, you’re about as likely to die from boarding any given US flight as you are from driving 1.15 miles. And if we limit our data to the past five years, boarding any given flight is as dangerous as driving the length of a football field.

Of course, the last five years probably aren’t actually a good indicator; if we’re in a point where air crashes happen on average once every 10 years, then looking back five years will necessarily give you a bad estimate, (ie, either higher than average, if the previous 5 years had a plane crash, or lower than average if it didn’t). So you’re chances probably aren’t one in a billion of dying when boarding a flight, they’re probably more like one in a hundred million or so.

All this is to say that, as measured by safety, the US has done an incredible job at promoting flight safety. Regulators have a clear mandate to make things safer, there isn’t much of a opposition group (while there are people who might want fewer regulations in principle and some people who might want to cut corners on safety, nobody is against aviation safety), and can be clearly measured. When these things happen, well, you get government success; the NTSB and FAA are examples of government greatness. Boring greatness mind you, and perhaps they are impressive because they’re boring. We have been able to take something mad, to travel at a speed of 500 miles per hour suspended miles above the ground by nothing but air, and have made accidents as unlikely as powerball victories.

Sources:

Number of Air travel passengers:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.AIR.PSGR?page=3

Number of auto fatalities and air fatalities before 2000:

http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_01.html_mfd

Number of air fatalities since 2000:

http://www.airsafe.com/events/us_ten.htm

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